Last
October, Ukraine carried out an attack on Russian naval forces near Sevastopol
using its innovative unmanned surface vehicles. Although this offensive did not
result in any deadly losses, it marked many firsts and took its place in naval
history. Additionally, it seriously limited the operational freedom of the
Russian fleet.
Following
the huge impact of this operation, Novorossiysk Naval Base and Fuel Terminal were
targeted in a similar way once again in November 2022. After the attack on this
port which is located about 400 nautical miles from Odesa, the Russian fleet has
hugely lost its initiative and was largely trapped in safe harbors.
The most
important point here was Ukraine's roadmap, which included the design,
production, and use of unmanned sea vehicles. This process was carried out during
hard times of war, when a significant portion of its industrial and commercial
infrastructure was devastated.
The
unmanned systems, which were thought to have been developed on the Jet-Ski
platform, had their data transfer needs met with the Starlink infrastructure,
allowing for real-time targeting. As a result, videos of the terminal assault
phase were released, allowing for the development of a favorable media campaign
for Ukraine. Russia had accused the United Kingdom for the attacks, for
providing specialist training and technology transfer.
Following
these developments, it has been reported that on February 10, the Russian Navy launched
unmanned surface attack to Zatoka Bridge, located within Odessa's strategic
transportation network.
Although
the bridge had been hit by Russian missiles before, this attack marks an
important threshold in terms of the equipment used. While there is not much
information available yet about the unmanned systems used in the attack, it was
perceived by the public as Ukraine being hit by its own weapon's copy. An
analysis based on the explosion shown in the footage reveals that, like the
Ukrainian USVs, the damage is limited due to the warhead's limited size.
On the
other hand, the video footage showing the moment of the explosion indicates
that the unmanned surface vehicle exploded right under the bridge, increasing
the possibility that the Russian platform was also conned visually, as in the
Ukrainian attack. This points the arrows to Starlink, one of the few options
for transmitting real time video streams as a communication infrastructure.
Another
interesting development is that on February 8, SpaceX announced there would be
restrictions on the use of Starlink in Ukraine. SpaceX emphasized that Starlink
was never intended to be used in armed robotic systems and the systems provided
to Ukraine aimed to support war-affected infrastructure such as hospitals,
banks, schools, and homes. This decision was strongly opposed by Ukraine, which
still heavily relies on Starlink for its communication infrastructure. However,
with the latest attack, it has become a reality that the use of this technology
by the adversary could also harm Ukraine.
According
to SpaceX's announcement last fall, there are 25,000 Starlink terminals in
Ukraine, and the cost of providing this service to SpaceX is approximately $20
million per month. At the outset, the Starlink system was heavily subjected to
Russian electromagnetic attacks and interference, but after software updates,
it has become much more resilient to electronic warfare.
As a
result, the easy resolution of the biggest problem of unmanned systems, which
is the broadband communication infrastructure, has the potential to redefine
asymmetric threats.
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